[!@#$%!]

this one is for the non-illiterates

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ideas-collide/

Trump’s two worst economic ideas collide
Catherine Rampell

At 12:01 a.m. Friday, President Trump’s two worst economic ideas finally collided — and made each other even worse.

To be sure, there are a lot of terrible economic theories espoused by this president (tax cuts pay for themselves, government shutdowns are fun, scam artists should roam free, etc.). But the specific bad ideas I’m referring to are:

1. Trade wars are good and easy to win; and
2. It’s smart for the president to publicly bash the Federal Reserve.

Last fall, Trump began loudly complaining about the Fed’s interest rate hikes, in defiance of a multidecade-long policy for the White House to never comment on Fed decisions. The reason for this norm is clear: Central banks must be politically independent in both practice and perception in order to credibly commit to stable prices. If the public believes that politicians rather than independent technocrats control the printing press, inflation can easily spiral out of control. Lots of other countries throughout history (Venezuela, Argentina, pre-euro Italy) have served as cautionary tales.

But none of that mattered to Trump. He has been throwing tantrums about the Fed’s modest interest rate increases, claiming that they threaten both the U.S. economy and his presidency. At one point, there were even reports that Trump was considering taking the unprecedented and cataclysmic step of firing the Fed chair whom he appointed, Jerome H. Powell.

Markets paid attention. As it turns out, China did, too.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Beijing noticed Trump’s latest Fed-related outbursts and interpreted them as evidence that the president was freaked out about the underlying health of the U.S. economy. They suggested that he might be secretly desperate to make a deal, any deal, with China:

Originally Posted by wsj

Mr. Trump’s hectoring of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates was seen in Beijing as evidence that the president thought the U.S. economy was more fragile than he claimed ...

An April 30 tweet, in which Mr. Trump coupled criticism of Mr. Powell with praise of Chinese economic policy, especially caught the eye of senior officials. “China is adding great stimulus to its economy while at the same time keeping interest rates low,” Mr. Trump tweeted. “Our Federal Reserve has incessantly lifted interest rates.”

“Why would you be constantly asking the Fed to lower rates if your economy is not turning weak,” said Mei Xinyu, an analyst at a think tank affiliated with China’s Commerce Ministry. If the U.S.’s resolve was weakening, the thinking in Beijing went, the U.S. would be more willing to cut a deal, even if Beijing hardened its positions.

In other words, our dealmaker in chief failed to realize that berating the Fed not only harms the long-run credibility of the central bank; it also hurt his near-term negotiating position with China.

After previously expressing a willingness to make serious concessions, China started playing hardball. Negotiations broke down, and then Trump responded by more than doubling existing tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports, from 10 percent to 25 percent, on Friday. He has also threatened to add tariffs to an additional $325 billion in Chinese goods that aren’t currently taxed.

Trump seems to believe that these tariffs are an end unto themselves because they are bringing “wealth” into the country by forcing China to pay “billions” into the U.S. Treasury:

Originally Posted by trump tweet

 

Talks with China continue in a very congenial manner - there is absolutely no need to rush - as Tariffs are NOW being paid to the United States by China of 25% on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods & products. These massive payments go directly to the Treasury of the U.S....

This is, to be clear, incorrect.

Two separate studies by separate teams of all-star economists have found that 100 percent of the tariffs Trump has imposed so far are being passed along to, and paid by, U.S. consumers. One of those studies also found that workers in heavily Republican counties were being hurt the most by Trump’s trade wars, thanks to both the tariffs the president has imposed on our imports and the tit-for-tat retaliation other countries have slapped on our exports.

In other words, Trump’s Fed war has worsened his trade war. And in a particularly painful, the trade war might also soon heighten his Fed war.

After all, worsening trade tensions could put the Fed in a bind. An escalation in tariffs is likely to increase uncertainty, slow down business investment and hiring, and ultimately drag on growth. But it might also raise prices, since as those studies I cited note, the cost of the tariffs so far has been passed through to U.S. consumers.

That first effect — slowing growth — would nudge the Fed toward looser monetary policy. The second effect — higher inflation — could instead nudge the Fed toward tighter monetary policy. If a spike in inflation is clearly from a transitory shock (such as a one-time increase in tariffs), Fed officials should ignore it; but even so, it might be hard to tell in the moment what’s behind any given change in the pace of price growth.

Powell acknowledged these challenges when asked by Marketplace’s Kai Ryssdal last year about the tools available if trade wars slow the economy:

Originally Posted by marketplace

Powell: ... We essentially have our our interest rate tool, so if the economy weakens, we can lower interest rates. We can slow the pace at which we’re increasing them. There could be an effect on inflation. I wouldn’t want to, you know, dive into a bunch of hypotheticals here, but I would say, you can imagine situations which would be very challenging, where inflation is going up and the economy is weakening.

Ryssdal: And you’re lowering rates all the same, just waiting for stuff to get better.

Powell: Again, it’s not at all clear how it would evolve. Inflation could move up, just sort of a step up in the price level, which wouldn’t affect future inflation, and that would be something you tend to look through what we call a supply shock. But this will, it it’ll have to be a question that we think about. But again I don’t want to get into a lot of hypotheticals. I just think at this point we’re watching carefully and hoping for a good result.

Basically, escalating trade tensions could make the central bank’s already very difficult job even more difficult — and thereby provide even more fodder for Trump to complain about Fed policies.

The moral of the story: Neither trade wars nor Fed wars are good and easy to win. But especially not when fought simultaneously.

[h8kurdt]

So what do you think will be the outcome of all this?

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by h8kurdt

So what do you think will be the outcome of all this?

well, i don’t have a crystal ball, and if powell can’t tell how could i possibly, but besides universal pain and suffering from a global recession (lol) seems to me the marketwatch exchange with powell signals a risk for stagflation, which is when you have economic decline and high unemployment, but prices go up (instead of down due to lack of demand). stagnation + inflation.

last thing this happened here was in the 70s—actually started before the oil crisis and continued after. that’s what ushered in thatcherism and reaganomics.

eta: actually it was milton friedman’s monetarism that got us out of stagflation. but after the last recession there is not a lot of room to cut interest rates and stimulate the economy.

[ilduclo]

DJIA off over 670$ in 5 days, thanks, Trimp!

[!@#$%!]

again, not for functional illiterates

—

I led a platoon in Iraq. Trump is wrong to pardon war criminals.
Soldiers pay attention to example. Murderous leaders command murderous units.

By Waitman Wade Beorn
Waitman Wade Beorn, a combat veteran of Iraq, is a Holocaust and genocide studies historian, a lecturer at the University of Virginia, and the author of “Marching Into Darkness: The Wehrmacht and the Holocaust in Belarus.” He is a graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point.

May 9

In early 2003, as a cavalry officer, I stood in front of my scout platoon at dusk after a long day preparing to deploy to Iraq. I spoke with them about the law of war and how they should treat civilians when we got into theater. It wasn’t a long conversation, but I felt that giving clear guidance about what was acceptable — and not acceptable — was important. They should treat the civilians as they would neighbors, I told them. Soldiers take most seriously the things their leadership makes most serious.

On Monday, President Trump pardoned the convicted war criminal Michael Behenna, who had murdered Ali Mansur, an unarmed, naked Iraqi, by shooting him in the head and chest. Making a specious claim of self-defense, Behenna argued that Mansur threw a piece of concrete at him and “ stood up like he’s coming at me.” And so he neutralized this threat, a naked man, already released by the Army. Behenna was supposed to be returning Mansur home to his village. A military court convicted Behenna of unpremeditated murder. American soldiers testified against him. The military court of appeals and a review panel upheld that conviction, though he was paroled early, in 2014.

Even before pardoning Behenna, Trump demonstrated a disturbing flippancy toward war crimes. He has repeatedly expressed support for former Navy SEAL Edward Gallagher, another alleged war criminal. Gallagher’s own men told investigators that he had, according to the New York Times, “shot a girl in a flower-print hijab who was walking with other girls on the riverbank.” In 2017, Gallagher walked up to a 15-year-old prisoner of war and “stabbed the wounded teenager several times in the neck and once in the chest with his hunting knife, killing him.” He then texted images of his “kill” to friends. Even in the tightknit Special Operations community, fellow SEALs were horrified and repeatedly reported Gallagher’s behavior until charges were brought. He faces court-martial at the end of the month. Trump tweeted that Gallagher would be given better conditions in confinement “in honor of his past service,” an honor many would say he threw away long ago.

Trump has also publicly supported Maj. Matt Golsteyn, who is charged with premeditated murder in the shooting of an unarmed man and the burning of his body in Afghanistan. “I will be reviewing the case of a ‘U.S. Military hero,’ ” the president tweeted.

In at least three instances, then, our commander in chief appears to have preferred to overlook serious war crimes in favor of a warped notion of patriotism and heroism. Trump subscribes to a “bad things happen in war” mentality — odd for a man who actively avoided military service.

This attitude is incredibly dangerous. It doesn’t just undermine the enforcement of military justice; it also sends a message to our armed forces about just what kind of conduct the United States takes seriously.

In my book “Marching Into Darkness,” I wrote about the German army’s participation in the Holocaust at the small-unit level. One conclusion was that, even given the premeditated, racist and highly ideologized environment of the Wehrmacht, the culture of each unit and the institutional leadership most directly influenced whether war crimes were committed. Murderous leaders led murderous units, I found.

Fortunately, the U.S. military does not exist in this kind of ethical quagmire. Compared with our opponents in the modern age, we have taken much more care to prosecute warfare in accordance with the laws of war. We have systems of military education that highlight our values and the law of armed conflict. And we have a military justice system that, while not perfect, prosecutes and condemns those service members who commit atrocities. In short, we have a foundation of military ethics that our combat leaders can stand on.

But what happens when that ethical foundation erodes or crumbles? There are things we can learn from the German military and the Holocaust that are relevant today — without arguing that we are Nazis. One lesson is the influence of an institution’s culture on criminal behavior during wartime. The German state intentionally created such a culture (another important distinction from the current situation). Before a German soldier set foot in the Soviet Union, he received several unmistakable clues about what behavior would be acceptable. The Commissar Order explicitly called for the summary execution of all Red Army political officers, an act that violated all laws of war, including those that Germany was party to. Also, the guidelines for German troops, disseminated the day before the invasion, stated that “this war demands ruthless and aggressive action against Bolshevik agitators, snipers, saboteurs, and Jews and tireless elimination of any active or passive resistance.” “Passive resistance” would be interpreted liberally. Last, and most striking in light of Trump’s pardon of Behenna, was the Jurisdiction Order. Issued in May 1941 directly by Adolf Hitler, it informed troops that “for offenses committed by members of the Wehrmacht and its employees against enemy civilians, prosecution is not compulsory, not even if the offense is at the same time a military crime or violation.” Soldiers were literally told that they would not be tried for behavior that would be a crime anywhere else in Europe.

The Wehrmacht proceeded to commit some of the worst atrocities in the history of modern warfare on a scale that obviously dwarfs anything we have seen in Iraq or Afghanistan. But the underlying lessons remain valid. Murderous leaders led murderous units. Soldiers took their cues from the guidance they were given and the examples they were shown. They were often more likely to commit war crimes because of their commanders’ signaling than because of Nazi ideology. (In my research on the Wehrmacht, I also discovered the corollary to be true: Leaders opposed to criminality led units that did not commit crimes.)

When Trump champions war criminals as brave patriots who are simply victims of political correctness, he seems to push for a climate that condones unethical and criminal behavior. He appears to write off war crimes as the cost of doing business. If this is the example our military is given, we should not be surprised to see more Behennas and Gallaghers. Referring to the infamous Army “kill team ” in Afghanistan in 2009-2010, a senior military official noted the importance of the brigade commander’s aggressive guidance, which rejected any attempt to “win hearts and minds.” The official observed that “clearly, the guys who were pulling the trigger are the proximate cause of the crime, but the culture itself is the enabler.”

No reasonable person would claim that Trump is Hitler or that the U.S. military is the German army in World War II. Cases like those stand out as so horrific precisely because the American military has the strong ethical foundation the Wehrmacht lacked and generally does not commit war crimes. But the dynamics of units in combat at ground level can be strikingly similar across time and space, and so we ignore historical lessons at our peril. Perhaps that’s why one case study from my research on the German army and the Holocaust forms the foundation of a training module for the U.S. military in conjunction with the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum and West Point. It is used by ROTC programs and military units across the country.

Leaders are constantly making policy, by what they do — and by what they don’t do. Trump’s posture endangers our deployed men and women by betraying the trust of host nations that we will prosecute those rare individuals who commit crimes against their people.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...013_story.html

[!@#$%!]

lmao. that article wasn’t about who can vote. it’s about leadership.

[!@#$%!]

please

your rube goldberg justifications are the derangement

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by Robert Schunk

I am not justifying anything. I am, as I've long said I am, quite disturbed by the Trump administration''s warlike tendencies, as well as his campaign-era endorsement of war crimes. I'm also pointing out Beorn's concentration on Trump's actions to date, at the expense of any serious discussion of Trump's predecessors' actions in regard to the subject at hand.

“i am quite disturbed but what about irrelevant whataboutisms”

[ilduclo]

Repub FCC Commissioner Michael O'Reilly spoke to an audience of debt collectors at ACA International. Debt collectors are one of the country's most zealous users of robocalls, a tool they deploy to hound people in debt.

"Repeat after me," O'Reilly said, "'Robocall is not a bad word."

[tw2113]

They hound me about student loan debt I don't have

[ilduclo]

Living expenses for poor students now being taxed at 37%, a feature of the new Repulsian tax plan. Thanks, Trimp and Yertle!

[ilduclo]

Seekyoulow (trumps tiny attorney) is appealing the release of his financial records to the judge denied a Senate hearing for SCOTUS appointment, Merrick Garland....

:lol:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donal... hpmg00000067

In other Seekyoulow news, the little guy suborned perjury

just how tiny is that little fellow? He is surprisingly buttery, though.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/20/polit...sed/index.html

 

[!@#$%!]

democrats’ latest primary polls

 

uncle joe way ahead of grandpa bear(nie)

beto in the land of the forgotten

biden-warren ticket?
biden-harris?

[tw2113]

I think Biden is way up there more just from familiarity over 8 years as VP

[!@#$%!]

yeah but 20pts is 20pts...

[tw2113]

I'm already over the election cycle and we're literally 18 months away. It's going to be a long time.

[!@#$%!]

lmao

i know what you mean

but here’s to booting that ugly orange mutha

if we do, it will all have been worth it

if we don’t, then, okay, i’ll be the first to punch the wall

[tw2113]

Originally Posted by !@#$%!

lmao

i know what you mean

but here’s to booting that ugly orange mutha

if we do, it will all have been worth it

if we don’t, then, okay, i’ll be the first to punch the wall

we need to approve the wall being built first.

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by tw2113

we need to approve the wall being built first.

hahahaha

i forgot about that one

[!@#$%!]

lmao blob on tv saying “ russia is a hoax” ha ha ha ha

he keeps saying no collision lololo

get off the teevee motherfuker. what’s the news.

is he quitting? please fucking quit lol.

-

lol he keeps huffing. has breathing problems. will he croak?

is this a press comference or display of moaning?

fucking moaning donnie