A little late to post but I've been caught up in football, here is a great article debating the effectiveness of offensive rebounding.
Originally Posted by Doc Rivers
“So, you’re a big believer in offensive rebounds I think; I’m not. Listen, like I said, you can pick on that all I want. That is a number I rarely look at, is offensive rebounds. Statistically it holds up. I can tell you, you don’t offensive rebound, you stop transition, you win more games than when you get offensive rebounds. I can guarantee you that on those stats.”
My take, rebounding has become less significant as basketball has moved away from iso/one-on-one style of play more towards a team oriented approach, particularly on pressure defense. The 1980s/90s days of one-on-one match ups and iso shoot outs are long over, and replaced by quick footed, highly choreographed, team-oriented pressure defense. Nobody is standing around anymore. THIS I feel is why rebounding has become less important to winning games.
In the 80s/90s the "twin towers" was an enormously (pun intended) successful strategy at getting rebounds and blocking the rim/driving lanes from easy lay-ups. One big man could take on the likes of Michael Jordan or try and slow down guys like John Stockton simply with their physical pressense under the basket. Now? Dominant centers and big men are less important, because complicated ball-moving offenses have made them irrelevant. On the defensive side, big men are less important because two or three well choreographed defenders putting constant pressure on the ball can actually be more effective.
This is why rebounding isn't important anymore, especially why defensive minded coaches like Doc Rivers, Greg Poppovich, and Eric Spoelstra have essentially abandoned offensive rebounding. They realized transition defense can be that much more effective at creating more possessions that second change points. I have spent a lot of time YELLING at the Heat on the TV when watching teams dominate the offensive boards, but their transition d is so quick, it negates those gaffes. When the Heat give up offensive boards, they are gaining a defensive advantage, and it shows on their stat line. What they lack in rebounds, they more than make up in generated turn overs. Its a gamble, particularly a physically exhausting one, but the stats don't lie, in the past several years the better defensive teams have been more likely to win than the offensive juggernauts (2008/9-2010/11 Lakers aside)...
The article examines the Pacers in particular, who crashed the play-offs last season as the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA, but honestly, Miami's D cut them in pieces. Hibbert was terribly over-rated in that series, and simply put, if the officiating had been more on the 3-second violations and fouls (fuck that bullshit verticality excuse, that was soooooo fucking bogus) The Heat would have had 5-10 more freethrows a game and perhaps won it in 5..