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the "equations" that are trumpeted to say that there are at least tens of thousands of advanced civilizations such as ours (if we deem ourselves advanced, heh) take into account very few factors, such as the number of earth like planets supposedly existing around the number of Sol-like stars in the galaxy, plus certain fudge factors such as "likelihood of liquid water" whioch are completely guessed at.
that shit is useless.
the Earth we have come to know,a nd the life on it, is a result not just of being where it is, around this particular sun, but of several large scale collisisons with comets/asteroids, including one that eventually became our moon, which give us tidal foces, and without the tides then multi cellular life may never have evolved, much less human intellignece. not to mention we have fere oxygen in our atmosphere, constantly replenished by plant and single celled algae life. most oxygen, being reafctive, is embedded in oxides throughout the galaxy.
the odds are nearly infinitessimal that another planet would go through exactly what Earth has gone through in the 5 Billion plus years of ti's existance, so as to develop an advanced intelligence in humans that have been around, mnodern humans, for less than 250 thousand years.
homonids and our desecendants have been around for just over a muillion years.
remember that life on earth was at single celled organism stage for upwards of 3 and a half BILLION years.
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