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Originally Posted by Bytor Peltor
I posed the above question after Peyton threw for SEVEN TD passes in Game One......here are the updated numbers after Week Three:
Aaron Rogers 8TD
Drew Brees 6TD
Tom Brady 5TD
Maybe Brees and Brady can finally reach SEVEN TD's after four games played?
Peyton now has 12 TD's............
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Just showing the numbers is a bit misleading. True, Peyton is playing an intense version of the lights out Joe Montana/Joe Flacco in the post-season with 12 TDs and no INT, which if he had done that in the playoffs would have beaten the record that the two Joes tied for..
Yes, this is impressive, in a Fantasy football vacuum, but fantasy football is a consolation prize for teams and players who aren't legitimately contending for the Championship, like Drew Brees or Matt Stafford last season..
ESPN actually wrote an interesting and revealing article about how the highest scoring season teams don't always translate into Superbowls or even post-season success...
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f the 16 teams that have scored at least 500 points in a season since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, only four went on to win the Super Bowl -- the 1999 Rams (526 points), the 2009 Saints (510 points), the 1994 49ers (505 points) and those ’98 Broncos (501 points). Included in those impressive, sling-it-around teams that didn’t get it done are the 16-0 Patriots of 2007 (589 points) and the 15-1 Vikings (556 points) in 1998.
But the ’99 Rams scored 32.9 points per game as the Greatest Show on Turf, and they were fifth in the league in rushing (128.7 yards per game). The ’09 Saints were sixth in the league in rushing (131.6 yards per game). The 1994 49ers were sixth in the league in rushing (118.6 yards per game). And the 1998 Broncos, with Hall of Famer John Elway at quarterback, were second in the league in rushing at 154.3 yards per game.
There are also two members of the 500-point club who went to a Super Bowl, but lost in the title game to a top five rushing attack. The ’83 Redskins (541 points) were third in the league in rushing and the 2001 Rams (503 points) were fifth in the league in rushing.
The ’07 Patriots were 13th in rushing; the ’98 Vikings were 11th.
What does it mean? It means the Broncos will need a little more from the three-man rotation at running back than they’re getting. Not much more -- they’re 14th in rushing at the moment -- especially when things get squeaky tight down the stretch.
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So while Peyton is thriving playing with essentially four WRs, the Broncos are not running the ball enough. They are scoring plenty of TDs in the air, in fact, are on pace to set an NFL record
if the Law of Averages doesn't catch up with them (which it more than likely will)...
EVEN if Broncos manage to score 600 points and set an all-time season record, STILL they aren't truly favored to win the Superbowl unless they can significantly improve their running game. At the end of the day, to win a Superbowl you have to (a) score, (b) defend at a top-10 level and (c) run the ball. Almost EVERY single Superbowl winner managed to do all three to win it all, and great, high-volume season teams like the 2011 15-1 Packers, or the 2007 16-0 Patriots, or the 2011 14-2 Falcons, just because you score like crazy, doesn't mean you're truly favored. Its the teams that are the most balanced that win it all, and simply put, Denver isn't it. They're giving away WAY too many TDs in garbage time, and not running the ball well enough to truly contend. Its a small sample size, so we can reevaluate it at the halfway point, but if Denver keeps playing at this pace, they will not be able to pull it off..
Also notice Denver right now leads the league with 8 fumbles and 5 turn overs, so if they weren't scoring at such a prolific rate, they just might be doing much worse with bad ball handling like that..