Sonic Youth Gossip - View Single Post - Is Trump really a serious contender for the Republican nomination?

ilduclo · 11.04.2016, 04:34 PM

couple of good things from Electoralvote.com

1) There Will Not Be a Surge of Hidden Trump Voters

Donald Trump has repeatedly said that he will win the election due to a surprise surge of previously hidden conservative white voters who didn't vote in 2012. However, for this to happen, these hidden voters would first have to register to vote. Voter registration data show that it is not happening. Stronger yet, an analysis of voter registrations since 2012 show the opposite. Polls of voters in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida show that newly-registered voters are going for Hillary Clinton 47% to 31%, in part because the new voters are disproportionately young and non-white. Even among new white voters, Trump is having trouble, barely leading 40% to 34%.

The polling data show that the people who are not registered aren't conservative populists, either. Many of them are fed up with the system and don't like any of the candidates. Finally, there are more missing non-white voters than white voters, so if all the unregistered voters were to have registered, it would have helped Clinton more than Trump. (V)

2)Early Voting in Nevada Dominated by Democrats

Early voting in Nevada is looking good for Hillary Clinton. Of the people voting early, 47% are registered Democrats, 34% are registered Republicans, and 19% are "other." Jon Ralston, long-time dean of Nevada political journalism, made the following calculation, based on the assumption that both Clinton and Donald Trump each get 90% of their respective bases:

If the independents split 50-50, Clinton wins by 29,000 votes.
If independents go for Trump by 10 points, Clinton wins by 17,000 votes.
If independents go for Trump by 20 points, Clinton wins by 3,000 votes.
However, there is a caveat: Early voting is new in Nevada and many people don't know about it, so the sample size is small. Nevertheless, getting a lead in early voting is better than trailing in early voting. Nevada polling shows the race to be close, but Nevada polling is iffy because the state has a large transient population. (V)

11.04.2016, 04:34 PM	#1546
ilduclo invito al cielo Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,305	couple of good things from Electoralvote.com 1) There Will Not Be a Surge of Hidden Trump Voters Donald Trump has repeatedly said that he will win the election due to a surprise surge of previously hidden conservative white voters who didn't vote in 2012. However, for this to happen, these hidden voters would first have to register to vote. Voter registration data show that it is not happening. Stronger yet, an analysis of voter registrations since 2012 show the opposite. Polls of voters in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida show that newly-registered voters are going for Hillary Clinton 47% to 31%, in part because the new voters are disproportionately young and non-white. Even among new white voters, Trump is having trouble, barely leading 40% to 34%. The polling data show that the people who are not registered aren't conservative populists, either. Many of them are fed up with the system and don't like any of the candidates. Finally, there are more missing non-white voters than white voters, so if all the unregistered voters were to have registered, it would have helped Clinton more than Trump. (V) 2)Early Voting in Nevada Dominated by Democrats Early voting in Nevada is looking good for Hillary Clinton. Of the people voting early, 47% are registered Democrats, 34% are registered Republicans, and 19% are "other." Jon Ralston, long-time dean of Nevada political journalism, made the following calculation, based on the assumption that both Clinton and Donald Trump each get 90% of their respective bases: If the independents split 50-50, Clinton wins by 29,000 votes. If independents go for Trump by 10 points, Clinton wins by 17,000 votes. If independents go for Trump by 20 points, Clinton wins by 3,000 votes. However, there is a caveat: Early voting is new in Nevada and many people don't know about it, so the sample size is small. Nevertheless, getting a lead in early voting is better than trailing in early voting. Nevada polling shows the race to be close, but Nevada polling is iffy because the state has a large transient population. (V)
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