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-   -   Is Trump really a serious contender for the Republican nomination? (http://www.sonicyouth.com/gossip/showthread.php?t=113183)

The Soup Nazi 07.31.2016 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuchFriendsAreDangerous
Bush only "won" because the country was doing so well and Bush advertised himself as a moderate conservative with social values


That and the fact that he basically promised to give the money saved during the Bill Clinton years "back to the people" [eyeroll] via taxslashes, which evidently appealed to Joe Sixpack and Hockey Mom more than Al Gore's "Medicare Lock Box".

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 08.01.2016 12:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Soup Nazi
What's crazy (well, even crazier) is that while Trump's acceptance speech has been compared to Tricky Dick's own one from 1968, it is impossible to think of Donaldo saying things like Nixon did back then:


Bullshit, of course, but Trump didn't even bother; he just YELLED his fucking hate speech as loud as he could.



That'll depend on the perception of the mandate as dictated by the United States ridiculous electoral college system (and don't even get me started on federalism and why it should NOT apply to the U.S.). If Hillary wins in, say, FORTY states, it won't matter if she wins each of them 50.01% vs 49.99% — it'll be considered an epic landslide anyway.


but mandates in American politics aren't determined by proportion of votes like in European politics rather in public perception, enthusiasm, and support and there is very little enthusiasm for Ovelord Hillary win or lose. reality is even Trump doesn't have genuine enthusiasm rather his "supporters" are enthusiastic about their partisanship but not necessarily their candidate. its essentially bizarro world John McCain.

!@#$%! 08.01.2016 12:19 AM

gore was a boring-ass fucking candidate. people wanted to "have a beer" with the fucking texan dolt instead. sure, the supreme court handed florida, and nader had a role in shaving those numbers close, but ultimately gore was a fucking boring candidate who squandered his advantage by being boring.

so im not counting my chickens yet.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo... ein-5952.html


hillary unfortunately is much more exciting when she's pissed off, putting the senate fuckers in their place, than when she's trying to be positive and cheery and sounding fake. she's effective but she's got anticharisma. then she picks kaine. zzzzzzzzzzzzz.

all the emotion in this campaign is coming from trump-- the hate, and the haters of hate. so here's to hating trump's hate---and to the self-destruction of the lunatic.

but dont count your chickens yet

evollove 08.01.2016 08:36 AM

Cause for optimism?

In 2000, Bush needed 41 percent of hispanic vote to win. He got 42 or something. In 2004, it was up a percentage point. McCain got 35 or so, Romney 28.

Trump is currently at 14-16%, depending on the source. I'm not sure what the needed Hispanic number is nowadays, but it ain't below 14%.

He's almost certainly going to loose the popular. And if we didn't have an electoral college I would sleep easy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by !@#$%!
but dont count your chickens yet


ilduclo 08.01.2016 08:54 AM

that's one of the reasons I wanted a Castro brother to be the veep choice. I think she missed a YUGE opportunity to mobilize those voters. In other e(r/l)ection news, Melanoma's web page with her Lower Slobbovian architecture degree has been removed from the web, but good ol Archive.org has saved it, including her beauty product line made with genuine fish eggs!

https://web.archive.org/web/20160720....com/my-world/

!@#$%! 08.01.2016 12:42 PM

@ evllv: no celebration until results are called in

@ ilducio: my panics don't need pandering with some unknown tejano, we already have jorge ramos on the departamento de movilización.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jorgeramo...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

evollove 08.01.2016 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by !@#$%!
@ evllv: no celebration until results are called in


Yeah, I was agreeing with you. It's my mantra. I'm going to be a nervous wreck the next 100 days or so, no matter what the polls say.

Wish I didn't live in Ohio. I might have to canvass. Damn it.

The Soup Nazi 08.01.2016 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by evollove
Yeah, I was agreeing with you. It's my mantra. I'm going to be a nervous wreck the next 100 days or so, no matter what the polls say.



I plan on hibernating until November 9, when I will hopefully wake up with Clinton as President-elect and brush off the campaign as one long, LONG, LONG motherfucking nightmare.

Quote:

Originally Posted by evollove
Wish I didn't live in Ohio.


Oyyyy... Sorry for ya, man. :(

!@#$%! 08.01.2016 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by evollove
Yeah, I was agreeing with you. It's my mantra. I'm going to be a nervous wreck the next 100 days or so, no matter what the polls say.

Wish I didn't live in Ohio. I might have to canvass. Damn it.

if you get burned out by knocking doors you can always help with the data. that's what i did.

also, phone banks.

evollove 08.01.2016 01:11 PM

I'm not sure what you mean by "the data." Sounds painless. I got really lucky: There's a Democratic office within easy walking distance of where I live. I'll ask if they have anything for lazy people who don't love Hillary but fucking hate Trump.

I canvassed like a motherfucker in 2008. It was difficult but I'm convinced knocking on a door an engaging a stranger in conversation is the best way to win someone over. Yeah, the hardest thing is the most effective. Damn you Life!

!@#$%! 08.01.2016 01:16 PM

you go over the list of voter data and make sure it's up to date etc as canvassers return so that you don't send people after the wrong place again or start pissing people off by sending 10 canvassers to the same house. it's the back end to the street activity. "moved" "voted early" "undecided" etc.

i'd rather deal with boring computers than people ha ha ha. but did my bit of that too-- i even drove people to the polls!

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 08.01.2016 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by evollove
Cause for optimism?

In 2000, Bush needed 41 percent of hispanic vote to win. He got 42 or something. In 2004, it was up a percentage point. McCain got 35 or so, Romney 28.

Trump is currently at 14-16%, depending on the source. I'm not sure what the needed Hispanic number is nowadays, but it ain't below 14%.

He's almost certainly going to loose the popular. And if we didn't have an electoral college I would sleep easy.


the electoral college in particular is what dooms Trump.

The Soup Nazi 08.01.2016 03:38 PM

You gotta be shitting me (yet again):

The Latest: Trump: The election might be "rigged"

Also (same link): Pocket Constitution Sales Soar After Trump Feud With Khan Family!

ilduclo 08.01.2016 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by !@#$%!
if you get burned out by knocking doors you can always help with the data. that's what i did.

also, phone banks.


me and Ms Ild cook dinners and lunches for campaign volunteers and drop them by our local Democratic Hq. I also volunteer to help set up and take down for their yearly "Chili Cookoff". I have been thinking about entering my chili (which is purely magnificent and would EASILY beat all the others), but there is more need for me to drive equipment back & forth in my little red truck;)

The Soup Nazi 08.01.2016 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by evollove
I'm going to be a nervous wreck the next 100 days or so, no matter what the polls say.

Wish I didn't live in Ohio. I might have to canvass. Damn it.


This is Ohio right now according to The New York Times (check the link to review their methodology):

 

ilduclo 08.01.2016 06:10 PM

big kicks for HRC according to 538.org today, though 64/37 polls only, 68/32 polls plus aaand 82/18 on the now cast

 

!@#$%! 08.01.2016 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ilduclo

 


this picture wins the thread

damn, this picture wins ALL threads

dead_battery 08.02.2016 01:07 PM

trumps dogs are trying to incite violence

Quote:

Originally Posted by roger stone
If there’s voter fraud, this election will be illegitimate, the election of the winner will be illegitimate, we will have a constitutional crisis, widespread civil disobedience, and the government will no longer be the government," Stone said. He also promised a "bloodbath" if the Democrats attempt to "steal" the election."


hopefully they get put down

The Soup Nazi 08.03.2016 02:37 PM

This is just fuckin' priceless, W.C. Fields stuff without the (intended) comedy:

Trump at rally: 'Get the baby out of here'

Video: https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...g-women-voters

greenlight 08.03.2016 03:31 PM

hey guys when does the Trump Vs Clinton debates starting? are there gonna be any? this will be most spectacular show ever...

 


or?

The Soup Nazi 08.03.2016 03:40 PM

From debates.org:

Quote:

Commission On Presidential Debates announces sites and dates for 2016 general election debates

Sep 23, 2015

The nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) today announced sites and dates for three presidential and one vice presidential debates during the 2016 general election. The dates and sites are:

First presidential debate:
Monday, September 26, 2016
Wright State University, Dayton, OH

Vice presidential debate:
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Longwood University, Farmville, VA

Second presidential debate:
Sunday, October 9, 2016
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO

Third presidential debate:
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV

Hofstra University in Hempstead, NY will serve as the backup site.

Incidentally, on July 29 Donaldinho tweeted that "Hillary & the Dems are trying to rig the debates so 2 are up against major NFL games", a claim that got a Pants On Fire rating on Politifact.com.

 

greenlight 08.03.2016 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Soup Nazi
From debates.org:


Incidentally, on July 29 Donaldinho tweeted that "Hillary & the Dems are trying to rig the debates so 2 are up against major NFL games", a claim that got a Pants On Fire rating on Politifact.com.

 


cheers!

The Soup Nazi 08.03.2016 07:07 PM

Mapping Donald Trump's Many Ties To Vladimir Putin's Russia
A neat-o short vide-o.

The Soup Nazi 08.03.2016 09:08 PM

 


Clint Eastwood Cheers Donald Trump & Slams "Pussy Generation"
"When I grew up, those things weren't called racist". Real nice, you piece of shit.

!@#$%! 08.03.2016 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Soup Nazi
 


Clint Eastwood Cheers Donald Trump & Slams "Pussy Generation"
"When I grew up, those things weren't called racist". Real nice, you piece of shit.

these fossils are hilarious. involuntarily hilarious, but still-- so out of touch i get vertigo just thinking about it.

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 08.03.2016 09:55 PM

what i find validating is people been acting like im an asshole for years now for always being anti racist for always accusing a sizable portion of American society as being racist and yet here we are with everything in plain view

greenlight 08.04.2016 03:44 AM

CLINT EASTWOOD: TRUMP CHALLENGING OBAMA’S ‘PUSSY GENERATION’
"Just fucking get over it," 86-year-old actor says

ESQ: What is the “pussy generation”?
CE: All these people that say, “Oh, you can’t do that, and you can’t do this, and you can’t say that.” I guess it’s just the times.

ESQ: Politically, you’re the Anti-Pussy party?
SE: That’s right. No candy-asses.
CE: Yeah, I’m anti–the pussy generation. Not to be confused with pussy.
SE: All of us are pro-pussy.

Drjohnrock 08.04.2016 05:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by !@#$%!
these fossils are hilarious. involuntarily hilarious, but still-- so out of touch i get vertigo just thinking about it.


Who cares about what a stupid redneck actor, who can't even act, thinks? If it wasn't for fellow rednecks going to see his movies he would either be in prison or dead.

!@#$%! 08.04.2016 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greenlight
CLINT EASTWOOD: TRUMP CHALLENGING OBAMA’S ‘PUSSY GENERATION’
"Just fucking get over it," 86-year-old actor says

ESQ: What is the “pussy generation”?
CE: All these people that say, “Oh, you can’t do that, and you can’t do this, and you can’t say that.” I guess it’s just the times.

ESQ: Politically, you’re the Anti-Pussy party?
SE: That’s right. No candy-asses.
CE: Yeah, I’m anti–the pussy generation. Not to be confused with pussy.
SE: All of us are pro-pussy.


 

amirite?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drjohnrock
Who cares about what a stupid redneck actor, who can't even act, thinks? If it wasn't for fellow rednecks going to see his movies he would either be in prison or dead.


so if grandmother had wheels she'd be a bicycle. got it.

greenlight 08.04.2016 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by !@#$%!
 

amirite?



so if grandmother had wheels she'd be a bicycle. got it.


haha, far from it (if i understood correctly), cool pic but!

!@#$%! 08.04.2016 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greenlight
haha, far from it (if i understood correctly), cool pic but!

what i meant is theyre the old version of

beavis: we don't hate pussy
butthead: all of us are pro-pussy, uh-huh-huh
beavis: yeah. we like pussy. pussy.
butthead: uh huh huh
beavis: pussy. pussy generation.
butthead: shut up beavis


change the name of the show to "eastwood & son" & put it on tvland at 3am

greenlight 08.04.2016 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by !@#$%!
what i meant is theyre the old version of

beavis: we don't hate pussy
butthead: all of us are pro-pussy, uh-huh-huh
beavis: yeah. we like pussy. pussy.
butthead: uh huh huh
beavis: pussy. pussy generation.
butthead: shut up beavis


change the name of the show to "eastwood & son" & put it on tvland at 3am


oh, i got confused (above /first time encounter with word amirite/), hehe, i see now.

ilduclo 08.04.2016 02:59 PM

78/22 polls only
73/27 polls plus
92/8 nowcast

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

greenlight 08.04.2016 04:13 PM

 

The Soup Nazi 08.04.2016 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ilduclo
78/22 polls only
73/27 polls plus
92/8 nowcast

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/


Thanks for this link!

ilduclo 08.04.2016 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Soup Nazi
Thanks for this link!


sure, I like the Nate Silver poll analysis, but here's a good article explaining the process and shows another way of looking at it (a more nuanced view)

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a..._the_2016.html

!@#$%! 08.04.2016 06:27 PM

per that link, trump + johnson would beat hillary on the popular vote (don't know what would happen to the electoral college).

north carolina looks flipped and az is awfully close. can it really be?

new mexico looks solid democrat now. sorry, "new rapist" i meant. this used to be a purple state.

now florida, ohio, pennsylvania, please don't fuck us.


Quote:

Originally Posted by greenlight


he looks like he's gonna cry. is he gonna cry? he's gonna cry!

he's gonna cry in november

The Soup Nazi 08.04.2016 06:35 PM

Irish pub invites restroom patrons to take aim at Trump

 


 


 


 

evollove 08.04.2016 06:36 PM

Ohio poll numbers embarrass me.

But three months is a looooong way to go in politics. Particularly this year, not one single person has any idea what lurks around the bend.

BTW, can we please stop all the Trump bashing? I understand disagreeing with his tax policy, but all the name-calling in this thread gets us nowhere. He's a person too, with real emotions. You're causing hurt and not helping America. Dick.

ilduclo 08.04.2016 07:52 PM

au contraire. He's a real threat to our way of life, and just about anything that can be done to defeat him needs to be done


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